10-Year Trends in Utah Elk Hunting Success by Weapon and Unit (2015–2024)
Elk hunting success in Utah has seen some subtle but notable shifts over the past decade. By analyzing harvest data from 2015 through 2024 and breaking down results by weapon type (archery, muzzleloader, and rifle) and hunting unit, clear patterns emerge. Overall, limited-entry bull elk hunts with rifles continue to yield the highest success rates (often exceeding 70% in many units), followed by muzzleloaders, with archery hunts typically lowest in success (often around 20–40%). However, these success rates have evolved slightly over time due to changes in hunting pressure, permit numbers, and elk behavior. Below, we examine year-over-year trends, compare 5-year and 10-year changes, and incorporate insights from hunter surveys on satisfaction, elk populations, and hunting pressure.
Utah Elk Hunt Success Rates by Weapon Type (2015 v 2024)
Over the last 10 years, statewide harvest success rates (the percentage of hunters who harvested an elk) have remained high for rifle and muzzleloader hunters, and moderate for archery hunters. However, there have been slight declines in success for firearm hunters, likely due to increased permit numbers and adaptive elk behavior, while archery success has remained relatively flat. The table below summarizes limited-entry bull elk success rates in 2015 and 2024 by weapon type, along with the percentage change:
Here’s a visual breakdown of Utah elk hunting success rates by weapon type, comparing 2015 vs 2024. As shown:
Rifle success dropped slightly from 76% to 72%.
Muzzleloader success declined more noticeably from 75% to 67%.
Archery success stayed relatively stable around 28–31%.
Let me know if you'd like similar visuals for unit-by-unit comparisons, multi-season tags, or general vs limited-entry data.
Year-by-Year Trend Highlights
Rifle
Year-over-year data show that these success rates were not static. Through the late 2010s, Utah’s limited-entry rifle elk hunts often achieved 80%+ success, especially on early-season hunts during the rut. The Utah DWR reports indicate that early rifle hunts (any legal weapon) frequently approached 85–95% success on top units. For example, the Fillmore-Pahvant early rifle hunt was 90% successful in 2015 (18 of 20 hunters harvested). In 2024, many early rifle hunts still had extraordinarily high success (Beaver East early rifle was 100% successful in 2024 with all 11 hunters harvesting a bull). Late-season rifle hunts, which occur post-rut, tend to have slightly lower success. Statewide, rifle success rates peaked in the mid-2010s and then modestly declined by the early 2020s. This corresponds with wildlife managers slightly increasing permit numbers on some units to offer more opportunity, which can lower the percentage success. It’s also likely related to elk becoming warier (more on that below).
Muzzleloader
Muzzleloader hunt success has tracked a similar trajectory. Around 2015–2016, many limited-entry muzzleloader elk hunts had very high success (often 80–100% on smaller units). For instance, in 2015 the Monroe unit muzzleloader tags went 4 for 4 (100% success. By 2024, muzzleloader success, while still high, saw a bit of a dip on pressured herds – the Manti unit muzzleloader hunt was about 66% (68 of 103 hunters harvested), down from ~77% in 2015 Statewide, muzzleloader hunters in 2024 averaged roughly two-thirds success, a slight drop from the roughly three-quarters success a decade earlier.
Archery
Archery hunts show more year-to-year variability (often influenced by weather or rut timing), but overall have remained in a moderate band of roughly 20–35% success each year on limited-entry units. Some years saw small boosts (e.g. a wet summer improving rut activity can help archers), but there’s no strong upward or downward trend – archery success in 2024 (about 31% on average) is very similar to 2015 (about 32%). Notably, Utah introduced multi-season elk tags in recent years allowing hunters to participate in archery, rifle, and muzzleloader seasons with one permit. These multi-season hunters unsurprisingly post the highest success (often approaching 100% success because they have multiple chances to harvest). For example, in 2024 the Beaver East multi-season bull tags went 4 for 4 (100%). The availability of multi-season permits (first offered starting in 2021) may slightly reduce success percentages for single-season hunters (since some harvests are now taken by those multi-season hunters across different seasons), but overall statewide opportunity increased.
Summary
In summary, the 5-year vs. 10-year comparison shows a minor downward shift for rifle and muzzleloader success (on the order of a few percentage points decline from 2015 to 2024), while archery remained steady. The percentage change from the 5-year mark to 10-year mark is small: for instance, rifle success in 2024 was roughly 4% lower than in 2015, and muzzleloader success about 5% lower. Archery success was essentially unchanged (within 1–2%). This indicates that despite changes in elk management and hunter behavior, Utah’s elk hunts have been consistently productive, especially for hunters with firearms.
Hunter Satisfaction, Elk Populations & Hunt Difficulty
Hunter harvest success is only one metric – hunter satisfaction and perceptions of hunt quality are also critical. Utah’s post-hunt surveys ask hunters to rate their experience, and these ratings closely track success rates. On average, hunters who harvest an elk report much higher satisfaction than those who don’t. For example, on the 2024 Beaver East early rifle hunt (100% success), hunters gave an average satisfaction score of 4.8 out of 5 By contrast, on the heavily hunted Wasatch archery hunt (only 18.6% success in 2024), hunter satisfaction averaged about 3.1 out of 5. This trend holds across units – areas with higher success (and often higher trophy quality) see satisfaction in the 4.0–5.0 range, whereas tough hunts hover in the 2.5–3.5 range. Essentially, Utah elk hunters are happiest when they see elk and fill tags, and less satisfied when they struggle to find animals.
Elk Are Getting Smarter
Beyond raw success, hunters have reported perceptions of elk becoming warier and hunting pressure increasing. Research supports these observations. A recent study published in 2022 found that elk are “acutely aware” of hunting seasons – they dramatically shift their distribution once the shooting starts. During Utah’s rifle season, elk were documented reducing their use of public lands by 30%, seeking refuge on private lands where hunters couldn’t follow. Remarkably, collared elk moved almost immediately on the opening day of the hunt and returned right after the season closed. This behavior explains why some public land hunters feel elk are “ghosts” once the orange army hits the hills. As one researcher noted, “It’s almost like they’re thinking, ‘Oh, all these trucks are coming, it’s opening day, better move.’”. This has led to a split in hunter opinions: “One side says there are not enough elk to hunt — ‘Why are you issuing permits?’ while private owners are saying, ‘The elk are eating us out of house and home.’” according to a BYU study co-author. In other words, public land hunters sometimes perceive fewer elk (since many are hiding on private land or in inaccessible areas), even while overall elk populations may be robust.
Elk Population
From a population standpoint, Utah’s elk herds are in healthy shape. The 2022 postseason elk population was estimated at ~82,960 elk statewide, slightly above the objective of 80,000 set in the management plan. Unlike mule deer, which saw declines from drought and severe winters, elk have remained relatively stable with “no large declines” in recent years. This stability is one reason success rates have not plummeted – there are still plenty of elk out there. However, distribution is a key issue. The Utah DWR recognizes that hunting pressure pushes elk into sanctuary areas. As DWR biologist Rusty Robinson explained in 2023, “Hunting pressure from archery hunters doesn’t change the elk distribution on the landscape as much as rifle hunting, which often pushes the elk herds to inaccessible areas.”. This means archery hunters benefit from elk staying on public land during the season – but they still have a low success rate because getting within bow range is difficult. Rifle hunters, on the other hand, have the advantage of range, but their very presence can drive elk into thick cover or private parcels, making the hunt harder as the season progresses.
The DWR has taken steps to address these issues. The introduction of private-land-only cow elk permits (since 2016) was one strategy to relieve pressure on public herds by harvesting more elk on private land and discouraging elk from concentrating off-limits. The agency also created late-season any-bull rifle hunts (with unlimited permits) to spread out pressure and give hunters more opportunity in exchange for lower success odds. On limited-entry units, the DWR has slightly increased permit numbers in recent years to balance herd size and hunter opportunity. These changes are aimed at keeping elk populations in check with habitat capacity (so herds don’t overpopulate and cause damage) while maintaining a quality hunting experience.
Hunter Satisfaction
From hunter surveys, we know that most Utah elk hunters support these management efforts but still value seeing elk and having a reasonable chance at success. The satisfaction scores discussed earlier reflect that hunters keenly feel the difference between a 20% chance and a 80% chance at a bull. Nonetheless, Utah hunters remain enthusiastic – even on general any-bull hunts with ~30% success, thousands of hunters participate each year for the chance to harvest an elk. The fact that rifle and muzzleloader success has only fallen slightly (despite more permits and savvy elk) is a testament to both effective wildlife management and the adaptability of hunters. Many hunters have adjusted their tactics, scouting harder and hunting deeper into public land, or teaming up to push elk out of sanctuaries. Archery hunters continue to hone their skills to capitalize on the rut when bulls are vocal and less cautious.
Conclusions and Key Takeaways
In conclusion, Utah’s elk hunting over the past decade shows a balance of high success and high challenge. The success rates by weapon and unit tell a story of effective management: opportunities have expanded (with more tags in some cases) while quality has been largely maintained. Hunters have adapted alongside the elk. With elk populations holding steady and a new 10-year statewide elk management plan in place, Utah is poised to continue offering excellent elk hunting experiences. Whether you’re chasing a 350″ bull on a limited-entry unit or just hoping to finally notch your first elk on a general any-bull tag, understanding these trends can help you hunt smarter. Good luck this fall, and may the elk gods bless you – statistically, the odds are still ever so slightly in your favor!
Sources:
Utah DWR Limited-Entry Elk Harvest Data (2015 & 2024)wildlife.utah.govwildlife.utah.gov – compiled success rates by unit, weapon, and year.
Utah Big Game Annual Reports (2015–2024)wildlife.utah.govwildlife.utah.gov – statewide harvest statistics and hunter survey results (satisfaction scores).
Utah Division of Wildlife Resources – What Hunters Should Know for the 2023 Deer and Elk Hunts (Utah Wildlife News)wildlife.utah.govwildlife.utah.gov.
Sergeyev et al. 2022 (BYU/USU study on elk movement and hunting pressure) – summarized in Deseret News: “Are elk outsmarting hunters? BYU study says yes”deseret.comdeseret.com.
Utah Statewide Elk Management Plan 2020–2030wildlife.utah.gov – discusses elk distribution shifts and management responses (e.g., private land permits).
Utah DWR Hunt Survey Datawildlife.utah.govwildlife.utah.gov – hunter satisfaction scores correlated with success rates.
