Everyone wants to know: Does your rifle shoot 1-inch groups at 100 yards? Half an inch? Better?

The truth is more complicated—and more important—than most shooters realize.

The Misleading Magic of One Good Group

A while back, I ran into a buddy of mine, Jim, at the range. Jim is a solid shooter who enjoys dialing in precision loads. When I asked how his .308 build was coming along, he replied:

“I got it to shoot a 5/8-inch group… once.”

That single, tight group gave Jim confidence. He assumed that’s what the rifle should shoot every time if he just did everything right. But this is a common misunderstanding.

In reality, even with the same ammo, rifle, and shooter, your groups will vary. Some will be tight, some wider. That’s not always your fault—it’s just randomness doing its job. Without understanding this natural fluctuation, shooters can misdiagnose their rifle’s performance or even make unnecessary changes.

What You're Missing When You Don't Mention Shot Count

One often overlooked detail is how many shots were in the group. A 3-shot group and a 10-shot group can’t be compared at face value.

A group can never be smaller than the first two shots.
The more shots you fire, the more opportunity there is for variation.
Larger shot counts usually yield bigger groups—not because the rifle is worse, but because randomness adds up.

If you want a true picture of performance, shot count must always be part of the equation.

Figure 1: What a Perfect Sample Set Looks Like

This chart shows what happens when you fire a very large number of rounds through a well-tuned rifle. There’s no special cause of error—just the regular, random spread you’d expect from a good system. This is the true performance of the rifle. But unfortunately, by the time you’ve fired enough rounds to chart something like this, your barrel might be toast.

The Reality of Sampling

Since nobody wants to burn out their barrel just to find an average, we take smaller samples—like three- or five-shot groups—and use them to estimate performance. But here’s the catch: estimates vary. Sometimes you get lucky, sometimes you don’t.

Figure 2: A Lucky Sample

This sample looks tight. If this is what you shot on paper, you’d probably leave the range in a great mood. But it doesn’t necessarily mean the rifle is shooting better today—it just means you drew a tight group from the statistical pool.

Figure 3: A Discouraging Sample

Here’s another group from the same population. It’s noticeably looser. Many shooters would assume something went wrong—their grip, their load, or their scope. But in truth, this could be completely normal variation.

Both of these groups came from the same underlying performance. That’s the core idea here: Don’t trust a single group. Trust the trend.

Sorting Out Real Problems from Natural Spread

To make smart decisions about your rifle setup, you have to distinguish between two kinds of variation:

Special Cause – Fixable issues like a loose optic, stock contact, or poor shooter form.
Common Cause – Tiny, ever-present inconsistencies like slight bullet imbalances or powder differences.

If your rifle is free of special causes, then the rest of the variation is just natural. It’s tempting to chase every flier, but unless you see a consistent pattern, you're probably just chasing noise.

Final Thoughts: Group Therapy for the Shooter’s Mind

Shooters often put too much weight on one group. But rifles don’t lie—math does, if you don’t know how to read it. Understand the role of randomness, shoot multiple groups, and only make changes when trends—not outliers—tell you something’s wrong.

That’s the real path to knowing how accurate your rifle is.

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